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Comcast is rolling out a new policy to keep people from hogging the Internet. And while the new restrictions seem pretty generous, I'm on high alert for what I call the Comcast gotcha. That's the sticker shock that happens when the cheapo trial period ends, and suddenly the bill comes and I'm paying how much for cable and Internet?

The new policy goes like this: Starting next month, customers will be limited to 250 gigabytes of downloaded content per month. If someone goes above that limit, their account could be suspended.

The good news? It's very tough to hit that limit. Comcast says that people can still download 50 high-definition movies, 250 standard-definition movies or 6,000 songs every month. So most people won't be affected by the new rules.

The bad news? Comcast doesn't make it easy to measure how much data you've downloaded. It's developing a bandwidth meter, but for now you have to find one on your own and figure out how to use it.

The worst news? Comcast could change its allowance at any time. It and other Internet providers could slowly tighten the restrictions, to the point where anything beyond simple e-mail and Web surfing will come at a cost. 

This is a significant change. The days of all-you-can-download are over.

Comcast shares fell 2% Friday to close at $21.18.

On one hand, I can see where Comcast is coming from. A very small percentage of its customers use more than their share of Internet capacity, usually by illegally downloading lots of movies and albums. That can cause problems for everyone, particularly as it gets easier to find and download those super-large files.

But Comcast might not be as innocent in all this as it wants you to think. You can buy (or rent) high-definition movies from several companies online. And that competes with Comcast's own video-on-demand offering.

By placing caps on the movies someone can download, Comcast is making it harder for competitors to sell competing content.

As I said, the allowance seems generous for now. If Comcast leaves that 250 GB cap alone, most customers will be fine. But excuse me while I wait for the gotcha.

Here's what others are saying about the news:

Wired: "While usage caps may help Comcast out of a jam, they're not the best long-term solution for users or for the market -- it could slow broadband adoption and stall innovation. Here's a novel suggestion: If supply is a problem, why not increase capacity?"

Om Malik: "The caps are a move to ensure that the gouging scheme put in place by Comcast and other cable providers stays intact and they can continue to sell their video-on-demand services."

Bernstein analyst Craig Moffett: "Usage-based pricing would be a welcome development for broadband providers, and would be the simplest manifestation yet of what we believe is still the primary truth of the broadband market; that is that demand is rising at a time when relevant supply is actually shrinking." (Via Wired)

TechCrunch: "Comcast’s cap will be seen not as the start of a decline but rather the flowering of the Golden Age of Streaming."

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Socially responsible funds have begotten a subset of portfolios based on religious principles. Investors are guided by their beliefs, but how well do those translate into profit?

Marvell had put in a very strong quarter and guided essentially inline, (slight miss on revenues and slight beat on EPS). I've predicted the upcoming quarter this way: "I think [it] will be a beat and conservative guide in-line."

That is exactly what we got. It's just too hard for nearly any company of MRVL's size (in the semi space) to take a chance and raise numbers currently if you have a diversified mix of products and sell into multiple industries. Plus, it's too early (in the quarter) and unless your in the solar space, the compression of demand is just enough to cause concern.

However, all this being said, I listened to the whole call last night and there are more than just raw numbers on any conference call. The biggest thing I try to key into is the tone of the call and what inflections can you pick out of the executives' comments. On this note, (as with Cisco's last call), I felt the tone was quite strong. With regard to guidance, the company all but said it's building a cushion in case it experiences more pressure due to economic conditions while making positive comments on new products and new customer wins as well as a very impressive guide for free cash flow generation (something many do not pay enough attention to anymore, in my opinion).

Longer term, the company will continue to lead in its traditional networking, storage, Hard Disk Drive (HDD), and PC product families. As far as growth drivers, the Xscale purchase still continues to drive strong growth in the cellular smartphone markets. Additionally, the market seems to be realizing now that MRVL is a key play on the Solid State Drive (SSD) market. My view is that the SSD market will exhibit stunning growth and MRVL will be a key player in that lexicon.

Not to overstate this, but these free cash flow numbers (both last quarter and guided), should not be understated. The ultimate key for value creation is growth of cash flows. The tech sector has been a strong producer of free cash flow is a market where this is getting harder to find every quarter. Given these free cash flow numbers, I've raised my fair value on MRVL a couple points to a current range of $26-28 and I still feel the stock can trade well above this range given improved sentiment, GCVE, rate reductions by the ECB/BOE, and the eventual moves by the SEC to enforce naked shorting and the much needed reinstatement of an uptick rule.

Lastly, from a market perspective, the market is putting too much emphasis on Dell's report and its comments on spreading IT weakness. While this is no surprise, I think DELL's mute to poor numbers are more reflective of DELL and less reflective of general macro conditions beyond what is already widely known. The Naz being down 30 plus is putting a little extra pressure on MRVL. I suspect if we were having an up day, MRVL would be trading flat. Technically, MRVL is sort of in no man's land with better value and support in the mid $13's, while being a breakout buy above $16.50. Should it trade in the mid $13's or lower, I'll increase my holdings.

Top Stocks blogging partner Todd Harrison is founder & CEO of Minyanville.com. This post was written by Minyanville Contributor Sean Udall.

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Aston Martin is shaking up (not stirring) the automobile market with the introduction of a new coupe that is all about the prestige. Even as the industry is in a slump, this company believes that 77 of this newest addition to their line will sell. If you recall, Ford sold off the company for a substantial loss only last year and now this yet-to-be-named car will probably become the latest trophy for the rich and famous. Come to think of it, I bet that Larry Ellison, founder of Oracle will be one of the first in line as he will be in looking to spend some of that estimated 37% pay raise he is slated to receive.

Of course, Ellison deserves the $72 million annual salary, possibly even more than Merrill Lynch's John Thain who is reported to be making upwards of $74 million per year. I am unsure who will get one of these beauties first, but the real question is whether they are going to buy or lease....

Ironically, Chrysler today announced that they are considering selling off its sporty Dodge Viper nameplate in an attempt to control some of the bleeding. That is on top of the recent request from Ford and GM for $50 billion in loans from the government in order to explore more energy efficient cars. Confused?

The ugly truth is that the auto industry is not only having trouble with delinquencies and defaults, they will see difficult times ahead as consumers are slowing down their spending. What's more, the industry is clearly having an identity problem.

So, while Aston Martin may sell 77 cars to the ultra-wealthy and bring in revenues of $1.3 billion, it is clearly not going to be as easy for the traditional auto companies to sell out their inventory.

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Andrew Horowitz is a money manager and the founder of Horowitz & Company. He is also the author of the bestselling book, The Disciplined Investor . Check out his latest investment idea or listen in as he hosts, The Disciplined Investor Podcast.

 

 

With home studios, room rentals, pet care and 9 other kinds of enterprises, you can make money from home while cutting your taxes. How about turning your house into a movie set?

Imagine driving a sleek and roomy plug-in electric hybrid sports car that might never need gas. It's coming soon, and even if you can't afford it, you can invest in the technology.

Video games are always something I buy used, if I can. Oh sure, there's nothing like unwrapping a pristine copy of "Grand Theft Auto IV," but in general, video games don't deteriorate as they move to the second-hand market.

The gaming industry doesn't make money off of a second-hand sale. And that's a "critical situation" for publishing giant Electronic Arts, an executive with the company told GamesIndustry.biz. How to fix the problem? Shifting the revenue focus online by adding more online content and tools to games.

EA is clearly annoyed with used-game sales. It's trying to make the case that by selling so many second-hand games, retailers actually cut into the revenue they would get from new game sales. (I can hear GameStop laughing already).

But EA is smartly not going to take this fight to retailers. That's a lost cause. The company is better off selling online addons for games, such as new maps, levels and characters.

The blue chips surge as second-quarter GDP growth is revised higher, but Dell earnings disappoint. Oil falls even as Tropical Storm Gustav moves toward the Gulf Coast and its oil and gas rigs. Tiffany profit nearly doubles; Sears results fall short.

Poof! There goes all the buzz about Dell being a turnaround worth watching. The market has been excited about Dell, for the first time in a long while, but today's disappointing earnings announcement may have killed that enthusiasm.

After jumping 16% in the last three months, the stock price is being hammered in after-hours trading. And all the talk about Dell's recovery, about its cool new mini-laptops, and about CEO Michael Dell's revamped strategy has just moved to the back burner.

Dell's quarterly profit fell by 17% to 31 cents a share. Analysts were expecting 36 cents a share from the company. Dell is trying to cast itself as a work in progress, saying that it's "positioning" itself for future wins. CFO Brian Gladden said that margins were hurt by strategic moves to speed up growth. And restructuring charges hurt profit by a penny.

Revenue was solidly better than expected at $16.4 billion.

Dell shares are down nearly 11% in the after-market to $22.51.

Caterpillar says surging demand for construction and mining equipment in China and other emerging nations will drive record sales this year.

The company expects sales to China to exceed $2 billion and global sales to top $50 billion, offsetting sluggish sales in the United States.

In the second quarter of 2008, Caterpillar reported all-time records for Revenue and earnings per share. The company earned $1.74 a share, up from $1.24 earned in the same period a year ago. Revenue totaled $13.6 billion, up from $11.4 billion reported in the second quarter of 2007.

"While North America remains depressed and we've seen softening in Western Europe and Japan, Caterpillar continues to grow in emerging markets and in global industries like energy and mining,” Jim Owens, Caterpillar chairman and CEO, said in a prepared statement.

In addition to China, sales have been strong in India, Russia, Southeast Asia and the Middle East. In Asia, orders for mining and power generating equipment extend to 2010.

Caterpillar is negotiating with the Chinese government to develop at 250-acre facility in Kumming to test equipment and train customers in its use.

Komatsu of Japan is second only to Caterpillar in the manufacture of heavy equipment. Caterpillar also competes with CNH Global, a Dutch company, and Volvo.

US exports have been helped by a weaker dollar and have been rising at the fastest rate in years. Exports have helped the US avoid slipping into recession. Voters therefore might want to be wary of politicians who say free trade costs jobs and vow to renegotiate trade agreements, including NAFTA.

American export growth is spread around the world, with some of the sharpest gains coming in Latin America. Exports to Brazil increased 43% in the second quarter ended in June while exports to Argentina jumped 65% and exports to Colombia were up 42%.

China is the largest customer for U.S. exports after Canada and Mexico.

Top Stocks blogging partner Todd Harrison is founder & CEO of Minyanville.com. This post was written by Minyanville Contributor Scott Reeves.

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